In high-stakes battle for Madhya Pradesh, Shivraj Singh Chouhan gets a leg-up from Gujarat BJP, other states

BJP has assigned a constituency to each of its 230 leaders from Gujarat, UP, Bihar, and Maharashtra and tasked them with preparing ground reports. Of the 48-strong Gujarat contingent, 18 have been assigned tribal seats.

With Madhya Pradesh one of the crucial stops on the road leading to the Lok Sabha elections in 2024, the BJP has decided to send 230 leaders from Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Bihar to “prepare a ground report” on each constituency in the poll-bound state and help the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government beat any anti-incumbency. In this group of 230, 48 are from Gujarat.

A senior Gujarat MLA headed to Madhya Pradesh said the leaders would be assigned the roles of “observers and inspectors” in each constituency and tasked with “strengthening macro-planning activities” that have “helped the BJP in Gujarat”. All 230 leaders attended a one-day camp in Bhopal on Saturday where they were briefed before they fanned out to their assigned constituencies.

“From Sunday onwards, we will be on-field for a week, meeting local leaders and understanding what the constituency needs in terms of planning and strength for the party … The MLAs will act as observers by hearing the ‘aspirations’ of local leaders and help the party leadership by recommending candidates,” said the Gujarat MLA.

This “ground-reality check” is a first for most of the Gujarat MLAs, with some having the experience of being roped in for election campaigns in other states. Vadodara district’s Savli MLA Ketan Inamdar told The Indian Express, “I have previously campaigned for the party in Maharashtra, Uttarakhand and MP, but this is the first time I am being assigned the task of planning.”

Inamdar has been assigned the Rau constituency in Indore district where the Congress won the last two elections. Rau is a prestige battle for the   BJP and its candidate Madhu Verma, the former Indore Development Authority chairperson who lost the 2018 elections to the Congress’s former state Higher Education Minister Jitu Patwari by less than 6,000 votes. Patwari won the seat in 2013, too.

Another senior BJP MLA from Gujarat’s tribal belt said the party was expecting a repeat of its Gujarat performance in MP’s tribal seats, with the results in the poll-bound state likely to affect the Lok Sabha polls next year too.

“With Lok Sabha polls approaching, it is necessary to win the Assembly polls in MP with a big margin … There is an anti-incumbency factor, especially in the tribal areas of MP. There has been a backlash to recent incidents and against the possibility of the Uniform Civil Code (UCC). Since the party tasted success in 23 of 27 tribal seats in the 2022 Gujarat Assembly polls, the focus is on replicating the feat by taking the word of development to these constituencies,” said the MLA, adding that the leaders had been chosen carefully to act as “neutral observers” in seats they are visiting for the first time.

Of the 48 Gujarat MLAs, 18 have been assigned Scheduled Tribe (ST) seats. Ten of these constituencies were won by the Congress in 2018 and the MLAs assigned the task of helping the ruling party wrest control of these seats include Gujarat Minister of State for Tribal Development Nimisha Suthar (Pansemal), former   Rajya Sabha MP Manu Patel (Petlawad), Shailesh Bhabhor (Alirajpur), Chaitanya Desai (Jhabua), and Mahesh Bhuriya (Kukshi).

The tribal seats of Alirajpur, Jhabua, Petlawad, and Kukshi are among those likely to see intense contests. The BJP’s Nagar Singh Chauhan, who has been fielded again from Alirajpur, lost to the Congress’s Mukesh Rawat by about 22,000 votes in 2018. In Jhabua, though the BJP won in 2013 and 2018, the party lost the 2019 by poll to the Congress’s Kantilal Bhuriya after incumbent MLA Guman Singh Damor was elected to the Lok Sabha. In the adjoining Petlawad, the BJP has fielded Nirmala Bhuriya, the daughter of former Lok Sabha MP Dilip Singh Bhuriya, even though she lost to the Congress by 5,000 votes in 2018. Dhar district’s Kukshi has been a Congress bastion for the last 15 years. In 2018, the party won with a 63,000-vote margin. This year, the BJP is set to field first-time candidate Jaydeep Patel.

The BJP has also sent several leaders to Scheduled Caste-reserved seats that it lost to the Congress five years ago, including former Gujarat Cabinet minister Ishwarsinh Parmar to Sonkatch. Among the first-time MLAs on assignment are Patidar reservation movement leader Hardik Patel in Indore-5 and Payal Kukrani, daughter of a convict in the 2002 Naroda Patiya riots, in Garot.

Former Vadodara mayor and Sayajigunj MLA Keyur Rokadia, who has been assigned Indore-2, told The Indian Express, “We will participate in organisational booth-level activities and interact with the associations and well-wishers of the party to gauge sentiments on the ground. Accordingly, we will communicate our findings to the party.”

Dhanani told The Indian Express, “All decisions are taken by the All-India Congress Committee (AICC) and it has prepared a list of leaders who have been appointed as observers and in-charges of each district. We are yet to have the party meeting to strategise for MP … The meeting is complete for Rajasthan. Once the brief has been handed out, we will visit MP.”

Dhanani added that “neutral leaders” would help communicate with the party high command. “As observers, we will be the link between local leaders and the high command, which is needed to resolve local-level issues where the AICC cannot directly intervene … The Congress is confident of repeating its Karnataka feat … We will win MP by a thumping majority and the BJP will lose confidence as it did in Karnataka.”

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Credit: THE INDIAN EXPRESS